NBA games

PHX @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
136–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30344230136
BKN30312633120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home BKN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 33 5 8
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 28 11 6
Devin Booker S 36 22 3 8
Eric Gordon S 32 17 2 4
Bradley Beal S 37 12 4 5
Josh Okogie 26 11 7 1
Drew Eubanks 18 6 6 2
Keita Bates-Diop 19 5 4 1
Jordan Goodwin 1 2 0 0
Yuta Watanabe 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 33 25 2 4
Mikal Bridges S 40 21 3 2
Lonnie Walker IV 31 19 3 7
Cameron Johnson S 29 18 2 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 30 16 2 5
Nic Claxton S 30 12 9 4
Dennis Smith Jr. 19 4 5 2
Royce O'Neale 21 3 1 1
Trendon Watford 6 2 0 2
Harry Giles III 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 2-foot dunk (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
18%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 31.1 5.1 7.2
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 24.7 4.4 4.2
3 Kevin Durant PHX 24.0 6.3 5.1
4 Cam Thomas BKN 22.9 3.9 3.5
5 Bradley Beal PHX 20.2 5.0 5.1
6 Nic Claxton BKN 13.6 11.2 2.3
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.7 3.7 2.8
8 Eric Gordon PHX 10.2 2.8 1.9
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 9.9 2.2 4.9
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.3 9.1 3.4
11 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.0 3.2 4.5
12 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.8 1.9 1.3
13 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.3 6.1 1.6
14 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.2 4.3 1.7
15 Royce O'Neale BKN 6.4 3.8 1.8
16 Trendon Watford BKN 5.1 2.1 1.2
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.8 4.1 0.9
18 Josh Okogie PHX 3.8 2.6 0.8
19 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.5 1.8 0.8
20 Nassir Little PHX 3.3 1.7 0.5
21 Harry Giles III BKN 3.2 2.0 0.7
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 2.9 2.5 0.5
23 Bol Bol PHX 2.7 1.9 0.4
24 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.3 1.2 0.5
25 Yuta Watanabe PHX 1.3 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.