NBA games

LAC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
125–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC37294019125
WSH35251930109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home WSH
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 31 9 4
James Harden S 33 25 9 5
Amir Coffey S 21 17 1 1
Norman Powell 27 14 7 3
Brandon Boston 27 12 3 1
Russell Westbrook 21 9 3 7
Terance Mann S 31 6 3 2
Mason Plumlee S 19 5 11 1
Daniel Theis 20 4 2 0
Bones Hyland 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 29 27 2 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 19 4 2
Corey Kispert 27 16 2 1
Deni Avdija S 26 13 5 3
Marvin Bagley III 18 10 8 2
Daniel Gafford S 22 6 8 2
Delon Wright 14 4 0 0
Tyus Jones S 29 4 4 7
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 12 3 6 0
Anthony Gill 8 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
15%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
11%
5 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
6 James Harden LAC
11%
7 Mason Plumlee LAC
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.5 6.7 5.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 21.9 8.5 5.5
3 James Harden LAC 19.0 5.1 9.5
4 Jordan Poole WSH 16.4 2.5 2.8
5 Deni Avdija WSH 15.2 6.8 4.1
6 Russell Westbrook LAC 13.6 4.6 5.1
7 Norman Powell LAC 13.1 3.8 1.5
8 Tyus Jones WSH 13.0 3.6 8.0
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.5 6.6 1.6
10 Daniel Gafford WSH 11.8 8.6 1.7
11 Terance Mann LAC 10.4 3.3 1.8
12 Corey Kispert WSH 9.4 2.8 1.6
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.6 3.6 1.6
14 Amir Coffey LAC 8.1 2.4 1.2
15 Daniel Theis LAC 6.7 4.7 1.7
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.2 5.0 1.1
17 Delon Wright WSH 5.3 1.9 2.0
18 Brandon Boston LAC 4.3 1.5 0.7
19 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.6 2.2 1.0
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.1 1.4 1.0
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.9 1.7 0.5
22 Bones Hyland LAC 2.6 0.7 0.8
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.1 1.1 0.4
24 Jules Bernard WSH 1.7 0.8 0.3
25 Johnny Davis WSH 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.