NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
121–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET23343430121
CLE30343232128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Danilo Gallinari 23 20 3 2
Cade Cunningham S 31 19 2 7
Bojan Bogdanovic S 30 17 2 0
Jaden Ivey S 29 14 1 4
Kevin Knox II 20 12 5 0
Alec Burks 30 11 4 6
Jalen Duren S 30 10 9 0
Monte Morris 16 8 2 2
Ausar Thompson 18 4 6 2
Marcus Sasser 10 3 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 45 6 8
Darius Garland S 20 19 0 3
Jarrett Allen S 30 14 11 0
Isaac Okoro 30 14 3 0
Caris LeVert 25 11 1 4
Sam Merrill 16 11 2 1
Evan Mobley S 22 8 3 4
Georges Niang 17 4 2 5
Max Strus S 31 2 4 1
Dean Wade 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
2 Darius Garland CLE
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
8 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
7%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
21%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.6 5.0 8.6
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.6 4.7 7.9
3 Darius Garland CLE 23.4 3.2 6.8
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.8 4.8 5.1
5 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 19.7 3.3 2.8
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.6 11.9 3.6
7 Caris LeVert CLE 17.3 4.1 5.1
8 Evan Mobley CLE 16.5 10.6 2.7
9 Jalen Duren DET 15.4 10.9 2.9
10 Alec Burks DET 14.5 3.1 2.1
11 Georges Niang CLE 12.4 4.2 1.8
12 Sam Merrill CLE 10.9 3.2 2.3
13 Max Strus CLE 10.8 4.3 3.6
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.3 3.2 1.8
15 Dean Wade CLE 7.9 3.7 1.4
16 Ausar Thompson DET 6.8 5.2 0.9
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.5 1.6 3.2
18 Killian Hayes DET 6.0 2.7 5.1
19 Kevin Knox II DET 5.9 2.6 0.9
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.4 2.8 2.2
21 Monte Morris DET 4.3 1.5 1.3
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.1 4.1 1.3
23 Mike Muscala DET 3.4 2.9 0.6
24 James Wiseman DET 3.4 2.8 0.3
25 Danilo Gallinari DET 3.3 1.3 0.6
26 Damian Jones CLE 2.9 1.5 0.5
27 Joe Harris DET 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.