NBA games

CHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
117–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI28292931117
CHA27322724110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CHA
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 43 35 7 9
Nikola Vucevic S 33 22 12 3
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 16 1 6
DeMar DeRozan S 38 15 4 3
Andre Drummond 15 10 8 1
Alex Caruso S 34 10 5 3
Julian Phillips 11 4 1 0
Terry Taylor 20 3 6 2
Jevon Carter 7 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 41 30 15 5
P.J. Washington 36 26 8 1
Brandon Miller S 38 21 1 3
Nick Richards S 25 10 6 1
Cody Martin S 28 7 1 6
Nick Smith Jr. 12 5 2 1
Bryce McGowens S 13 5 2 2
Ish Smith 16 3 0 2
Leaky Black 13 3 1 1
Nate Mensah 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 7-foot two point shot (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
16%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
5 Nick Richards CHA
10%
6 Coby White CHI
10%
7 P.J. Washington CHA
9%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
10 Cody Martin CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.9 4.9 5.7
2 Coby White CHI 22.9 4.8 6.3
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.6 7.4 3.5
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.1 10.9 3.9
5 Brandon Miller CHA 16.8 4.5 2.9
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.7 3.7 2.9
7 P.J. Washington CHA 13.9 4.4 2.2
8 Nick Richards CHA 12.1 9.2 1.4
9 Alex Caruso CHI 11.8 4.1 3.3
10 Cody Martin CHA 9.6 3.9 3.4
11 Andre Drummond CHI 8.0 6.9 0.9
12 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.3 1.9 1.6
13 Jevon Carter CHI 5.1 1.5 1.2
14 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.5 1.1 0.7
15 JT Thor CHA 4.3 2.8 0.7
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.1 1.4 0.8
17 Ish Smith CHA 4.1 2.2 3.2
18 James Bouknight CHA 4.0 1.3 0.8
19 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.7 0.7
20 Frank Ntilikina CHA 3.9 1.4 1.4
21 Nate Mensah CHA 3.5 2.8 0.9
22 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.1 2.3 0.3
23 Leaky Black CHA 2.9 1.4 0.6
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.