NBA games

PHI @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
107–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI28222730107
GS23293433119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home GS
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 38 26 10 2
Furkan Korkmaz 22 19 2 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 15 6 0
Joel Embiid S 30 14 7 2
Patrick Beverley S 28 12 5 2
Jaden Springer 21 10 5 2
Danuel House Jr. S 29 7 1 0
Ricky Council IV 2 2 0 0
KJ Martin 26 2 2 0
Paul Reed 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 37 8 7
Jonathan Kuminga S 39 26 7 2
Andrew Wiggins S 38 23 5 4
Brandin Podziemski S 37 11 6 3
Draymond Green S 29 9 6 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis 12 6 4 0
Lester Quinones 11 3 0 0
Dario Saric 17 2 2 7
Cory Joseph 13 2 1 2
Kevon Looney 8 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
4 Klay Thompson GS
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
10%
6 Paul Reed PHI
9%
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
10 Patrick Beverley PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.2 4.2 6.6
2 Joel Embiid PHI 25.2 9.7 5.8
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 22.2 6.0 3.0
4 Klay Thompson GS 20.5 3.5 3.6
5 Tobias Harris PHI 18.8 5.4 3.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.7 4.5 1.7
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.4 4.1 2.2
8 Draymond Green GS 12.3 6.8 5.9
9 Dario Saric GS 11.1 4.5 3.8
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.8 5.1 3.2
11 Patrick Beverley PHI 10.2 3.7 4.8
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.5 5.4 1.2
13 Paul Reed PHI 8.3 7.1 1.3
14 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 8.2 3.5 1.1
15 Danuel House Jr. PHI 6.1 2.6 1.1
16 Mo Bamba PHI 5.7 4.7 1.0
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 4.8 1.3
18 KJ Martin PHI 4.4 1.8 0.7
19 Cory Joseph GS 4.1 1.5 1.3
20 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.9 1.4 0.5
21 Terquavion Smith PHI 3.9 1.0 1.0
22 Jaden Springer PHI 3.5 1.9 0.7
23 Lester Quinones GS 3.0 1.2 0.6
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.9 1.4 0.9
25 Gui Santos GS 2.7 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.