NBA games

TOR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
118–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27263728118
CHI31322618107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHI
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 32 24 5 1
Bruce Brown S 38 19 7 3
Jordan Nwora 19 17 2 0
Thaddeus Young S 32 16 6 6
Dennis Schroder S 34 16 3 10
Scottie Barnes S 37 13 4 7
Jalen McDaniels 14 8 3 2
Chris Boucher 7 5 2 0
Jontay Porter 5 0 2 1
Gradey Dick 20 0 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 25 2 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 21 5 2
Nikola Vucevic S 36 14 9 3
Coby White S 35 13 2 6
Alex Caruso S 33 11 3 2
Julian Phillips 20 9 1 0
Andre Drummond 14 7 7 0
Dalen Terry 8 4 4 1
Jevon Carter 13 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bruce Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Bruce Brown makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Coby White CHI
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
5 Alex Caruso CHI
10%
6 Thaddeus Young TOR
9%
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
8 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
9 Bruce Brown TOR
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
31%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 24.4 5.4 6.2
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.6 5.3 6.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.1 6.9 6.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.5 11.6 4.3
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.5 3.4 2.8
6 Bruce Brown TOR 12.8 5.6 2.7
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.2 2.5 4.6
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.8 2.2 1.6
9 Alex Caruso CHI 11.0 4.1 3.4
10 Andre Drummond CHI 8.8 7.4 1.0
11 Thaddeus Young TOR 6.3 3.9 2.6
12 Jontay Porter TOR 5.7 3.6 2.3
13 Jevon Carter CHI 5.4 1.7 1.2
14 Chris Boucher TOR 5.0 3.5 0.8
15 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.7 2.0 1.3
16 Gradey Dick TOR 4.7 1.6 1.1
17 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.6 1.1 0.7
18 Dalen Terry CHI 3.5 1.5 1.1
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.3 1.0 0.5
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.3 1.6 0.7
21 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.1 1.7 0.8
22 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.0 2.2 0.4
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 1.6 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.