NBA games

UTAH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
103–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22272430103
NY29283625118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NY
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 28 22 3 7
Keyonte George 23 15 2 1
Lauri Markkanen S 34 14 5 1
Simone Fontecchio S 29 14 5 1
John Collins S 28 11 11 3
Jordan Clarkson 31 11 1 1
Kris Dunn S 17 6 3 6
Walker Kessler 16 6 7 0
Ochai Agbaji 13 3 1 0
Kelly Olynyk 21 1 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 39 33 5 4
Jalen Brunson S 38 29 3 9
Precious Achiuwa S 40 18 5 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 29 14 12 2
Quentin Grimes 20 12 6 2
Josh Hart S 43 10 10 10
Jericho Sims 19 2 4 0
Miles McBride 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 2-foot hook shot (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
16%
2 John Collins UTAH
13%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
10%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
6 Precious Achiuwa NY
10%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
8%
9 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
5%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.5 4.0 7.4
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.1 8.2 3.3
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.9 3.2 6.4
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.5 3.3 4.4
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 17.1 3.9 3.8
6 John Collins UTAH 13.8 7.9 1.5
7 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 12.1 2.3 3.4
8 Keyonte George UTAH 10.0 2.0 3.6
9 Josh Hart NY 9.3 7.2 3.0
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.7 10.8 2.5
11 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.5 4.5 3.5
12 Miles McBride NY 8.4 1.9 1.6
13 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 8.3 3.5 1.8
14 Quentin Grimes NY 8.0 2.4 1.6
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.7 2.9 4.1
16 Walker Kessler UTAH 6.7 6.1 0.9
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.5 6.0 1.1
18 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.7 3.2 0.9
19 Malachi Flynn NY 3.1 1.2 0.8
20 Jericho Sims NY 3.0 2.4 0.8
21 Taj Gibson NY 2.8 2.4 0.8
22 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.8 1.0 0.7
23 Jacob Toppin NY 2.7 2.2 0.7
24 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.6 1.1 0.7
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.5 1.6 0.5
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.5 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.