NBA games

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
124–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND26403721124
BOS36452523129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BOS
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 41 26 12 7
Pascal Siakam S 32 23 6 2
Myles Turner S 26 17 5 1
Andrew Nembhard 28 15 4 5
Tyrese Haliburton S 22 13 3 10
Buddy Hield S 36 12 6 4
Obi Toppin 22 11 8 2
Jalen Smith 21 7 4 2
Ben Sheppard 12 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 30 7 7
Jaylen Brown S 36 25 6 2
Derrick White S 35 24 2 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 17 12 2
Jrue Holiday S 39 17 5 4
Sam Hauser 23 9 2 1
Neemias Queta 14 4 1 1
Payton Pritchard 17 3 4 3
Oshae Brissett 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Jalen Smith IND
6%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
38%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.7 7.7 4.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.0 6.2 4.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.4 6.5 5.0
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.8 3.9 10.2
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.6 5.8 2.8
6 Myles Turner IND 16.0 6.2 1.7
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.4 4.4 4.0
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.7 2.5 6.2
9 Derrick White BOS 14.1 4.1 3.4
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.2 4.8 1.9
11 Buddy Hield IND 11.3 3.4 3.0
12 Jalen Smith IND 10.8 6.4 1.3
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.3 3.1 2.6
14 Obi Toppin IND 9.0 3.9 1.8
15 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 3.0 1.3
16 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.3 3.1 1.0
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.8 3.9 0.7
18 Ben Sheppard IND 4.4 2.1 1.3
19 Jarace Walker IND 4.0 1.8 1.0
20 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 3.1 0.6
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.7 1.1 0.6
22 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.9 1.9 0.7
23 Dalano Banton BOS 2.5 1.1 1.0
24 Kendall Brown IND 1.9 0.9 0.3
25 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.