NBA games

LAL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
122–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29273234122
ATL36313635138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home ATL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 32 28 0 6
LeBron James S 36 20 9 8
Rui Hachimura 23 16 4 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 26 12 4 3
Christian Wood 22 9 8 2
D'Angelo Russell S 27 9 1 5
Taurean Prince S 25 7 2 0
Jaxson Hayes S 24 6 6 1
Dylan Windler 3 6 1 1
Max Christie 11 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 34 26 2 13
Dejounte Murray S 33 24 4 9
Jalen Johnson S 35 19 11 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 25 18 1 1
Saddiq Bey S 35 18 8 2
Clint Capela S 24 13 12 1
Onyeka Okongwu 26 11 4 1
De'Andre Hunter 16 6 1 1
Kobe Bufkin 2 3 1 1
Garrison Mathews 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
12%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
9%
8 Clint Capela ATL
9%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
6%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
39%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.2 7.9 9.1
2 Trae Young ATL 26.1 3.4 10.7
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 24.8 3.0 6.6
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.8 6.5 5.7
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.1 7.4 3.9
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 18.1 4.1 2.1
7 Austin Reaves LAL 16.7 3.5 5.5
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.7 3.4 2.8
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.8 5.9 2.1
10 Clint Capela ATL 10.4 9.6 1.0
11 Taurean Prince LAL 9.8 3.2 1.7
12 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.8 5.6 1.9
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.7 6.4 1.5
14 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.1 3.2 1.4
15 Christian Wood LAL 6.8 4.4 1.3
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.7 2.0 1.3
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.5 1.6 1.0
18 Max Christie LAL 5.4 2.2 1.2
19 Patty Mills ATL 4.5 1.4 0.9
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.7 2.0 0.6
21 Skylar Mays LAL 3.2 1.1 1.2
22 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 1.2 0.7
23 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.6 1.7 0.7
24 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.2 1.3 0.4
25 AJ Griffin ATL 2.0 0.8 0.4
26 Dylan Windler LAL 1.7 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.