NBA games

PHI @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
104–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI28272227104
POR20383636130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home POR
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 25 6 1
Patrick Beverley S 30 14 1 5
Paul Reed S 24 11 6 3
Marcus Morris Sr. 22 9 2 0
Tobias Harris S 20 9 4 1
Jaden Springer 8 8 2 0
Ricky Council IV 9 8 2 0
KJ Martin 18 6 1 1
Mo Bamba 19 4 5 1
Nicolas Batum S 24 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 31 27 5 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 32 24 5 9
Scoot Henderson 22 22 2 4
Deandre Ayton S 31 18 6 2
Anfernee Simons S 28 15 1 6
Jabari Walker S 31 8 12 0
Toumani Camara 16 6 3 3
Duop Reath 12 5 1 1
Matisse Thybulle 19 3 1 0
Taze Moore 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
7 Paul Reed PHI
8%
8 Jabari Walker POR
7%
9 Patrick Beverley PHI
7%
10 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 22.2 4.1 5.3
2 Jerami Grant POR 20.5 4.5 2.8
3 Tobias Harris PHI 20.0 5.5 3.6
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR 17.8 4.1 5.0
5 Deandre Ayton POR 15.7 10.9 2.1
6 Scoot Henderson POR 13.3 3.5 3.8
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.4 4.6 1.8
8 Jabari Walker POR 11.1 8.2 1.7
9 Duop Reath POR 9.8 4.5 1.7
10 Paul Reed PHI 9.0 6.9 1.2
11 Patrick Beverley PHI 9.0 3.8 4.8
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.9 4.4 2.7
13 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.8 3.5 1.0
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.5 2.2 1.6
15 Toumani Camara POR 6.3 4.1 1.2
16 Danuel House Jr. PHI 6.1 2.6 1.1
17 Kris Murray POR 5.5 2.1 1.1
18 KJ Martin PHI 4.0 1.7 0.8
19 Mo Bamba PHI 3.9 2.9 0.7
20 Rayan Rupert POR 3.9 1.8 1.0
21 Terquavion Smith PHI 3.4 0.7 0.9
22 Jaden Springer PHI 3.1 1.7 0.8
23 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 3.0 1.3 0.9
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.9 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.