NBA games

MIL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
107–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL26301932107
DEN25312631113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DEN
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 29 12 4
Brook Lopez S 34 19 2 2
Damian Lillard S 35 18 3 5
Khris Middleton S 30 14 8 3
Bobby Portis 25 9 12 2
Pat Connaughton 16 7 1 3
Malik Beasley S 31 5 1 2
Cameron Payne 13 3 1 2
Jae Crowder 19 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 35 2 5
Nikola Jokic S 40 25 16 12
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 13 8 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 12 1 2
Reggie Jackson 20 9 2 5
Aaron Gordon S 25 8 6 2
Peyton Watson 23 6 4 2
DeAndre Jordan 8 5 2 0
Christian Braun 17 0 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 20-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
6%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
37%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.8 12.3 8.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.3 12.2 9.3
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.4 3.9 6.8
4 Jamal Murray DEN 24.5 4.2 7.1
5 Khris Middleton MIL 16.9 4.0 5.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.7 5.8 1.7
7 Brook Lopez MIL 15.1 7.4 2.6
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.5 5.8 2.5
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.5 6.1 1.2
10 Malik Beasley MIL 11.1 3.5 1.7
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.9 3.1 1.8
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.3 1.9 2.7
13 Jae Crowder MIL 6.6 2.9 1.0
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.6 3.3 1.3
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.2 1.6 1.7
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 2.0 1.4
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.5 2.2 1.2
18 Christian Braun DEN 5.2 3.1 0.9
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.7 3.4 1.1
20 AJ Green MIL 4.2 1.2 0.7
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 4.7 0.7
22 Justin Holiday DEN 2.6 1.0 0.7
23 Jay Huff DEN 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.5 0.9 0.8
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.4 0.9 0.6
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.1 0.7
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.6 0.5
28 Chris Livingston MIL 2.2 1.6 0.6
29 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.8 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.