NBA games

ORL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
129–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL35421240129
DAL26353535131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 39 36 9 7
Franz Wagner S 32 21 5 6
Anthony Black 30 20 3 1
Moritz Wagner 25 16 3 1
Jalen Suggs S 26 11 2 1
Cole Anthony 27 11 2 9
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 9 8 2
Joe Ingles 15 3 3 0
Jonathan Isaac S 8 2 0 0
Chuma Okeke 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 43 45 9 15
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 37 36 8 1
Jaden Hardy 27 20 1 7
Dereck Lively II S 41 20 11 1
Richaun Holmes 3 4 1 0
Grant Williams S 29 3 2 1
Josh Green S 33 2 2 1
Maxi Kleber 22 1 1 1
Dwight Powell 1 0 0 0
Seth Curry 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Isaac · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jonathan Isaac makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
21%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
12%
4 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
11%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
6 Josh Green DAL
9%
7 Jaden Hardy DAL
9%
8 Grant Williams DAL
8%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 Jonathan Isaac ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
26%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 35.8 8.1 10.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.7 6.0 5.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.2 5.6 4.5
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 18.9 3.9 2.2
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 15.0 6.1 1.8
6 Josh Green DAL 12.3 4.0 2.7
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.2 5.8 1.7
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 9.9 3.2 2.0
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.4 8.0 1.7
10 Grant Williams DAL 8.4 3.2 2.1
11 Cole Anthony ORL 7.3 3.1 1.9
12 Caleb Houstan ORL 7.2 2.3 1.3
13 Chuma Okeke ORL 6.6 3.7 1.1
14 Joe Ingles ORL 6.2 2.1 2.6
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.0 4.2 0.9
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.8 2.0 1.5
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.7 6.8 1.5
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.5 2.0 1.3
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.1 2.9 1.5
20 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.8 2.0 0.9
21 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.3 1.9 1.1
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.2 4.1 1.8
23 Seth Curry DAL 4.2 1.4 0.8
24 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.6 2.7 0.6
25 Brandon Williams DAL 3.2 0.9 0.6
26 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.1 2.4 0.8
27 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 1.3 0.6
28 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.