NBA games

WSH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
118–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25293331118
SA35233520113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home SA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 32 18 11 5
Daniel Gafford S 28 16 13 2
Marvin Bagley III 20 15 3 1
Tyus Jones S 32 15 2 9
Bilal Coulibaly 31 13 1 1
Jordan Poole S 33 13 1 3
Deni Avdija S 25 9 8 5
Corey Kispert 20 8 4 3
Landry Shamet 10 6 0 2
Delon Wright 9 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 24 5 4
Victor Wembanyama S 31 22 11 4
Cedi Osman 29 20 3 2
Keldon Johnson 31 14 5 3
Tre Jones S 33 11 2 8
Blake Wesley 12 7 1 2
Doug McDermott 10 6 1 1
Dominick Barlow 14 4 2 5
Julian Champagnie S 20 3 1 1
Jeremy Sochan S 26 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes dunk (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
3 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
10%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Tre Jones SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.0 11.0 4.4
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.0 9.2 5.6
3 Jordan Poole WSH 18.2 2.6 3.0
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.1 4.2 5.4
5 Jeremy Sochan SA 17.1 7.0 4.1
6 Deni Avdija WSH 16.6 6.6 4.3
7 Keldon Johnson SA 15.1 5.3 2.1
8 Tre Jones SA 14.1 4.1 7.8
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.4 7.2 1.5
10 Tyus Jones WSH 13.1 3.6 8.3
11 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.6 8.3 1.6
12 Corey Kispert WSH 9.5 2.7 1.6
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.3 3.4 1.6
14 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.0 4.2 1.8
15 Landry Shamet WSH 7.9 2.0 1.3
16 Dominick Barlow SA 7.1 5.7 1.7
17 Doug McDermott SA 6.6 1.7 1.2
18 Blake Wesley SA 6.3 2.3 3.4
19 Cedi Osman SA 6.1 2.8 1.5
20 Delon Wright WSH 5.2 2.0 2.1
21 Malaki Branham SA 5.1 1.4 1.3
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.7 2.4 0.9
23 Devonte' Graham SA 3.3 1.2 1.6
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.1 1.8 0.5
25 Trey Jemison III WSH 2.7 4.2 0.8
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.3 0.5
27 Jules Bernard WSH 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.