NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29202434107
OKC28193024101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 27 4 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 21 10 6
Jaden McDaniels S 31 14 3 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 12 2 3
Rudy Gobert S 36 12 18 1
Jordan McLaughlin 14 10 0 1
Naz Reid 21 9 5 2
Kyle Anderson 17 2 3 3
Troy Brown Jr. 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 37 7 8
Jalen Williams S 33 20 2 3
Josh Giddey S 19 13 4 2
Kenrich Williams 17 8 1 0
Aaron Wiggins 20 7 4 1
Isaiah Joe 16 5 4 0
Chet Holmgren S 32 4 7 2
Cason Wallace 20 3 2 2
Jaylin Williams 16 2 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 25 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
43%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.0 4.8 6.8
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.5 4.8 6.5
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.6 7.6 3.7
4 Jalen Williams OKC 21.3 4.4 5.1
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.5 12.0 1.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.0 7.6 2.9
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.1 3.3 1.8
8 Josh Giddey OKC 10.8 6.5 4.7
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.4 3.7 1.4
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.8 3.0 1.3
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.4 2.7 3.1
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.5 3.3 4.1
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.3 1.7 1.1
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 3.0 1.2
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.0 2.4 1.3
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.9 0.7
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.1 2.5 0.9
18 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.9 1.6 1.7
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 3.8 1.0 1.3
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.7 1.3 0.7
21 Shake Milton MIN 3.5 1.5 1.0
22 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.9 2.6 0.5
23 Davis Bertans OKC 2.9 1.0 0.6
24 Tre Mann OKC 2.7 1.3 1.3
25 Luka Garza MIN 2.2 1.1 0.3
26 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 1.6 0.7 0.6
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.5 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.