NBA games

SAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
103–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC18292828103
MEM3317212394

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MEM
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 34 23 5 4
Domantas Sabonis S 38 20 26 5
Kevin Huerter S 37 17 4 3
Harrison Barnes S 35 12 3 4
Trey Lyles 24 10 1 1
JaVale McGee 10 8 4 0
Davion Mitchell 16 5 0 0
Keegan Murray S 25 5 5 2
Malik Monk 20 3 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 22 3 2
Santi Aldama S 34 16 7 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 32 12 2 5
GG Jackson 30 12 6 2
Xavier Tillman S 37 10 5 3
Matt Hurt 23 10 2 1
David Roddy S 35 9 10 2
Jacob Gilyard 16 3 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
David Roddy · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"David Roddy makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
12%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
12%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
11%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
8 David Roddy MEM
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
47%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 25.8 6.4 4.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.8 3.5 4.9
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.4 13.1 8.8
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 17.2 6.0 4.0
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.9 5.1 1.8
6 Malik Monk SAC 15.2 3.5 5.7
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 13.1 4.1 3.0
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.7 3.0 1.5
9 David Roddy MEM 12.6 5.4 2.5
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.5 5.9 2.0
11 GG Jackson MEM 9.3 3.5 1.2
12 Xavier Tillman MEM 8.3 5.1 2.2
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.2 3.0 2.1
14 Derrick Rose MEM 7.1 1.8 3.6
15 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.9 2.7 3.7
16 Trey Lyles SAC 6.5 3.6 1.3
17 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.8 1.6 3.3
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.5 1.8 1.3
19 JaVale McGee SAC 4.3 3.1 0.6
20 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.8 1.4 1.1
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.2 1.4 0.6
22 Jake LaRavia MEM 3.2 1.1 0.5
23 Keon Ellis SAC 2.4 0.9 0.7
24 Alex Len SAC 2.1 2.8 0.9
25 Colby Jones SAC 1.5 1.0 0.5
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.