NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
119–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31292435119
HOU42363027135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 23 6 10
Anthony Davis S 29 23 7 2
D'Angelo Russell S 41 23 1 5
Rui Hachimura 22 16 5 1
Jaxson Hayes 14 9 2 0
Austin Reaves S 30 8 3 5
Max Christie 20 7 6 1
Taurean Prince S 25 5 3 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 7 3 0 0
Christian Wood 10 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 41 34 12 7
Alperen Sengun S 40 31 12 7
Cam Whitmore 18 20 6 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 18 9 4
Dillon Brooks S 28 17 3 1
Jae'Sean Tate 19 7 1 0
Jeff Green 8 5 2 0
Fred VanVleet S 37 3 4 14
Amen Thompson 12 0 7 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
9 Jeff Green HOU
7%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
47%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.3 7.6 9.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.9 10.6 6.0
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 24.6 3.1 6.7
4 Anthony Davis LAL 24.0 12.0 5.6
5 Jalen Green HOU 21.5 5.2 4.0
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.7 4.4 7.7
7 Austin Reaves LAL 16.5 3.5 6.0
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.6 8.7 1.4
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.0 3.6 1.9
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.3 5.2 1.3
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.1 3.1 1.7
12 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 9.7 6.2 1.9
13 Amen Thompson HOU 8.4 4.9 2.6
14 Rui Hachimura LAL 8.1 3.0 1.2
15 Christian Wood LAL 7.4 5.1 1.3
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.7 1.7 1.7
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.6 2.6 1.1
18 Max Christie LAL 5.1 1.8 1.3
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.3 2.9 1.1
20 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.8 0.7
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.4 1.2 0.8
22 Nate Hinton HOU 2.9 1.6 0.6
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.8 2.7 0.7
24 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.6 1.8 0.8
25 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.2 1.2 0.4
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.6 0.4
27 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 1.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.