NBA games

PHX @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
118–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX33293818118
MIA25242531105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIA
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Eric Gordon 34 23 4 5
Devin Booker S 41 22 8 7
Kevin Durant S 42 20 8 7
Bradley Beal S 39 19 5 7
Drew Eubanks 21 11 5 1
Josh Okogie 18 11 7 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 6 8 2
Grayson Allen S 13 3 2 1
Keita Bates-Diop 6 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 26 8 4
Terry Rozier S 27 21 2 3
Tyler Herro S 34 17 6 4
Josh Richardson 24 12 4 2
Caleb Martin 25 12 6 1
Bam Adebayo S 35 8 11 5
Kevin Love 13 4 2 0
Haywood Highsmith S 15 3 2 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 2 3 1
Duncan Robinson 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Terry Rozier MIA
9%
7 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
8 Drew Eubanks PHX
7%
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
11%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.0 4.3 6.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.8 6.1 5.0
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.2 4.7 3.9
4 Tyler Herro MIA 21.2 4.9 4.1
5 Bradley Beal PHX 19.8 4.8 5.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.7 10.4 5.3
7 Terry Rozier MIA 17.7 4.2 5.2
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.2 3.8 3.9
9 Grayson Allen PHX 12.8 3.9 2.9
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.5 2.6 2.2
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.1 9.7 3.8
12 Eric Gordon PHX 9.9 2.8 1.7
13 Caleb Martin MIA 9.1 3.7 2.0
14 Kevin Love MIA 8.3 4.9 1.8
15 Josh Richardson MIA 7.8 2.3 1.3
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.7 3.2 1.3
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.4 3.7 1.9
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.1 4.4 0.9
19 Nassir Little PHX 4.1 2.2 0.6
20 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.9 1.9 1.0
21 Josh Okogie PHX 3.7 2.3 0.9
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.6 2.9 0.6
23 Udoka Azubuike PHX 3.6 3.1 0.6
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.2 2.0 0.5
25 Jordan Goodwin PHX 3.0 1.7 0.6
26 Yuta Watanabe PHX 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.