NO @ BOS
NBA
TD Garden
·Final
112–118
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 36 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 112 |
| BOS | 25 | 25 | 31 | 37 | 118 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
BOS
33%
67%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram S | 36 | 28 | 7 | 6 |
| Zion Williamson S | 31 | 26 | 4 | 3 |
| CJ McCollum S | 37 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| Trey Murphy III | 28 | 15 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonas Valanciunas S | 20 | 11 | 7 | 2 |
| Herbert Jones S | 27 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
| Naji Marshall | 19 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Dyson Daniels | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Al Horford ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jayson Tatum
BOS
13%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
11%
3
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
11%
4
Jaylen Brown
BOS
11%
5
Brandon Ingram
NO
10%
6
Trey Murphy III
NO
9%
7
Jrue Holiday
BOS
8%
8
CJ McCollum
NO
7%
9
Herbert Jones
NO
7%
10
Derrick White
BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
19%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jayson Tatum | BOS | 24.6 | 7.4 | 3.9 |
| 2 | Jaylen Brown | BOS | 23.5 | 6.1 | 4.3 |
| 3 | Zion Williamson | NO | 22.7 | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| 4 | CJ McCollum | NO | 18.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 5 | Brandon Ingram | NO | 17.7 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| 6 | Jrue Holiday | BOS | 15.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| 7 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 13.7 | 9.4 | 2.5 |
| 8 | Derrick White | BOS | 13.4 | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| 9 | Herbert Jones | NO | 11.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 10 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 11.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 11 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | 10.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| 12 | Al Horford | BOS | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| 13 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 9.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 14 | Larry Nance Jr. | NO | 8.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 |
| 15 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 6.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 16 | Naji Marshall | NO | 6.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Sam Hauser | BOS | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 18 | Dyson Daniels | NO | 6.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| 19 | Oshae Brissett | BOS | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| 20 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 21 | Svi Mykhailiuk | BOS | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Neemias Queta | BOS | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 23 | E.J. Liddell | NO | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Cody Zeller | NO | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Lamar Stevens | BOS | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 26 | Dalano Banton | BOS | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.