NBA games

NO @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
112118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO36242725112
BOS25253137118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home BOS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 36 28 7 6
Zion Williamson S 31 26 4 3
CJ McCollum S 37 16 2 2
Trey Murphy III 28 15 4 0
Jonas Valanciunas S 20 11 7 2
Herbert Jones S 27 9 3 4
Naji Marshall 19 4 4 3
Larry Nance Jr. 20 3 3 1
Dyson Daniels 14 0 3 0
Jordan Hawkins 9 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 28 10 8
Jaylen Brown S 37 22 11 7
Jrue Holiday S 33 20 3 2
Derrick White S 35 17 1 4
Sam Hauser 26 11 0 1
Al Horford S 36 11 8 4
Payton Pritchard 14 5 0 0
Neemias Queta 10 4 2 1
Oshae Brissett 11 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 CJ McCollum NO
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.6 7.4 3.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.5 6.1 4.3
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.7 5.0 5.4
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.3 4.8 4.8
5 Brandon Ingram NO 17.7 5.1 6.1
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.4 4.7 4.7
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.7 9.4 2.5
8 Derrick White BOS 13.4 4.3 3.5
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.4 3.4 2.1
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.3 3.0 1.8
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.0 3.3 2.8
12 Al Horford BOS 9.7 5.7 2.6
13 Trey Murphy III NO 9.6 3.4 2.0
14 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.1 5.2 1.8
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.7 1.9 1.7
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.5 2.5 1.3
17 Sam Hauser BOS 6.3 3.3 1.3
18 Dyson Daniels NO 6.2 3.3 2.6
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.7 3.4 1.0
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.2 2.7 0.6
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.1 1.3 0.7
22 Neemias Queta BOS 3.5 2.9 0.6
23 E.J. Liddell NO 3.2 1.7 0.6
24 Cody Zeller NO 3.2 2.4 0.8
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.2 2.1 0.7
26 Dalano Banton BOS 2.9 1.3 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.