NBA games

LAC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
108–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC25272927108
CLE28283230118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home CLE
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 30 8 3
Norman Powell 28 18 3 2
Russell Westbrook 22 13 4 3
Amir Coffey 27 13 1 1
Paul George S 27 13 5 3
James Harden S 39 11 7 10
Terance Mann S 19 5 0 1
Mason Plumlee S 22 5 5 0
Kobe Brown 1 0 0 0
Daniel Theis 17 0 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 39 28 4 12
Jarrett Allen S 36 20 17 3
Isaac Okoro S 33 17 1 3
Max Strus S 35 14 7 4
Caris LeVert 23 13 2 3
Georges Niang 20 10 2 1
Evan Mobley S 21 10 9 0
Dean Wade 26 6 4 2
Sam Merrill 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
5 Paul George LAC
9%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Mason Plumlee LAC
7%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.1 5.1 7.6
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.7 6.3 4.5
3 Paul George LAC 20.8 4.9 2.9
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.7 11.8 3.9
5 James Harden LAC 18.3 4.7 8.5
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.9 10.3 3.0
7 Caris LeVert CLE 16.6 4.0 4.8
8 Georges Niang CLE 12.8 4.5 1.7
9 Sam Merrill CLE 12.0 3.6 2.6
10 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.7 3.8 4.3
11 Norman Powell LAC 11.7 3.3 1.1
12 Max Strus CLE 10.8 4.0 3.3
13 Terance Mann LAC 9.6 3.0 1.7
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.2 3.2 1.6
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 3.5 1.2
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.2 4.2 1.2
17 Amir Coffey LAC 6.2 2.0 0.8
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.5 4.5 0.9
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.2 2.8 2.2
20 Brandon Boston LAC 3.9 1.2 0.6
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.6 4.0 1.2
22 Damian Jones CLE 3.4 1.8 0.6
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.1 2.0 0.8
24 Bones Hyland LAC 3.0 0.8 0.9
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.8 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.