NBA games

CHI @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
104–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI26272328104
POR2319332196

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home POR
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 20 7 6
Coby White S 42 15 5 9
Andre Drummond 17 15 7 0
Nikola Vucevic S 34 14 7 3
Julian Phillips 23 11 2 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 11 5 3
Alex Caruso S 32 9 5 3
Jevon Carter 11 6 2 0
Dalen Terry 8 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 37 24 7 2
Deandre Ayton S 37 22 12 1
Malcolm Brogdon S 38 16 6 6
Anfernee Simons S 35 11 7 8
Jabari Walker S 24 7 6 0
Matisse Thybulle 32 7 2 1
Scoot Henderson 22 4 4 4
Duop Reath 11 3 3 0
Toumani Camara 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ayo Dosunmu · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Ayo Dosunmu makes 2-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Jerami Grant POR
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR
9%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 24.7 5.6 5.8
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.3 3.8 5.9
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.1 4.6 6.1
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.2 11.2 4.3
5 Jerami Grant POR 19.8 3.9 2.6
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 15.3 3.6 4.6
7 Deandre Ayton POR 13.6 10.1 2.1
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.5 3.4 2.8
9 Scoot Henderson POR 12.8 3.1 3.8
10 Alex Caruso CHI 11.0 4.1 3.3
11 Patrick Williams CHI 10.7 3.4 2.1
12 Jabari Walker POR 10.5 8.2 1.6
13 Duop Reath POR 9.6 4.7 1.7
14 Andre Drummond CHI 8.6 7.9 1.0
15 Torrey Craig CHI 8.2 4.2 1.1
16 Toumani Camara POR 6.8 4.3 1.4
17 Kris Murray POR 5.8 2.2 1.0
18 Jevon Carter CHI 5.5 1.4 1.2
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.4 2.0 1.4
20 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 1.9 1.0
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.5 1.1
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.5 1.7 0.4
23 Julian Phillips CHI 1.7 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.