NBA games

PHX @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
98–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX3719291398
ORL26253131113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home ORL
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 44 4 3
Kevin Durant S 37 15 4 5
Eric Gordon 22 9 1 1
Bradley Beal S 35 9 5 6
Grayson Allen S 33 8 5 1
Keita Bates-Diop 20 5 1 0
Drew Eubanks S 29 4 8 3
Udoka Azubuike 11 2 6 0
Jordan Goodwin 2 2 1 0
Josh Okogie 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 26 4 7
Moritz Wagner 23 16 12 1
Markelle Fultz S 27 14 2 4
Franz Wagner S 31 11 8 7
Jalen Suggs S 32 10 4 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 23 9 3 1
Jonathan Isaac 23 9 3 1
Joe Ingles 13 6 2 2
Cole Anthony 10 5 1 1
Anthony Black 13 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Drew Eubanks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
17%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
7 Markelle Fultz ORL
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
17%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 30.1 4.0 6.8
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.9 6.6 4.8
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 6.5 5.3
4 Franz Wagner ORL 24.2 5.5 4.2
5 Bradley Beal PHX 19.6 4.9 4.8
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.7 6.2 1.8
7 Grayson Allen PHX 13.0 3.9 3.1
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.7 4.7 1.7
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.5 3.2 1.8
10 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.1 3.4 3.3
11 Eric Gordon PHX 8.8 2.6 1.5
12 Cole Anthony ORL 8.3 3.7 2.5
13 Caleb Houstan ORL 7.9 2.0 1.3
14 Chuma Okeke ORL 6.6 3.9 1.1
15 Joe Ingles ORL 6.5 2.3 3.2
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.1 3.4 0.8
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.8 7.0 1.5
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.8 2.0 1.8
19 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.2 2.2 1.7
20 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.6 3.4 0.6
21 Nassir Little PHX 4.2 2.2 0.6
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.0 2.9 0.6
23 Josh Okogie PHX 4.0 2.2 0.9
24 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.7 2.1 0.9
25 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.5 1.5 0.7
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.3 1.8 0.3
27 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.0 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.