NBA games

OKC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
104–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31302518104
DET24463020120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DET
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 31 5 4
Jalen Williams S 28 20 1 3
Josh Giddey S 27 12 9 5
Chet Holmgren S 23 9 12 1
Aaron Wiggins 20 7 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 23 6 1 1
Keyontae Johnson 13 5 2 0
Cason Wallace 21 4 4 1
Isaiah Joe 11 4 1 0
Jaylin Williams 15 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 31 22 21 6
Jaden Ivey S 35 19 8 6
Bojan Bogdanovic S 32 17 1 2
Marcus Sasser 19 12 2 4
Isaiah Stewart S 25 11 1 0
Alec Burks 26 10 6 2
Monte Morris 14 9 1 2
Ausar Thompson 20 9 4 1
Kevin Knox II 14 6 3 1
Mike Muscala 11 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
7 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
4%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.9 4.7 7.1
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.1 4.7 8.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.4 5.2 6.3
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.7 3.9 3.4
5 Jaden Ivey DET 19.9 4.7 5.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.1 8.0 3.3
7 Jalen Duren DET 16.0 10.7 2.9
8 Alec Burks DET 15.6 3.1 2.2
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.1 6.7 2.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 3.3 1.5
11 Josh Giddey OKC 11.1 6.7 4.7
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.1 2.3 1.2
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.1 3.1 1.4
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.0 2.7 1.4
15 Kevin Knox II DET 7.0 2.9 1.1
16 Ausar Thompson DET 7.0 5.4 1.3
17 Killian Hayes DET 6.7 2.9 5.5
18 Marcus Sasser DET 5.9 1.7 3.1
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.7 3.6 1.0
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.8 1.4 1.6
21 Mike Muscala DET 4.8 3.3 1.0
22 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.5 2.7 1.0
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.2 1.5 0.9
24 Danilo Gallinari DET 4.1 1.5 0.7
25 James Wiseman DET 3.9 3.3 0.4
26 Davis Bertans OKC 3.7 1.4 0.9
27 Keyontae Johnson OKC 3.5 1.5 0.8
28 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.8 2.5 0.3
29 Joe Harris DET 1.9 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.