NBA games

TOR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
125–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR26353430125
ATL34234029126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ATL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Nwora 31 24 9 6
Scottie Barnes S 38 24 4 8
Gary Trent Jr. S 26 16 1 0
Gradey Dick 25 15 5 3
Dennis Schroder S 29 14 3 6
Jontay Porter 19 12 7 3
Bruce Brown S 37 11 9 2
Chris Boucher 13 5 4 0
Thaddeus Young S 22 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 42 30 2 12
Saddiq Bey S 41 26 13 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 39 24 4 2
Clint Capela S 28 19 14 0
Jalen Johnson S 42 17 12 5
Onyeka Okongwu 20 10 3 1
Trent Forrest 6 0 0 3
Garrison Mathews 8 0 0 0
Patty Mills 15 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Clint Capela makes dunk (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
16%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
14%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
4 Clint Capela ATL
12%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
6 Thaddeus Young TOR
9%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
8 Bruce Brown TOR
8%
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
10 Dennis Schroder TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.4 3.6 10.9
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.1 6.5 5.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.2 6.9 5.7
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.6 7.8 4.3
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.5 3.2 2.9
6 Bruce Brown TOR 14.2 5.1 3.1
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.2 5.7 2.0
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.7 2.6 4.2
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.8 2.3 1.7
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.0 7.4 1.6
11 Clint Capela ATL 10.0 9.3 1.0
12 Thaddeus Young TOR 6.6 3.8 2.6
13 Chris Boucher TOR 6.1 4.3 0.9
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.0 1.8 1.2
15 Jontay Porter TOR 5.8 3.8 2.3
16 Patty Mills ATL 5.0 1.5 1.0
17 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.5 1.5 0.8
18 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.1 1.7 1.0
19 Gradey Dick TOR 4.1 1.6 1.1
20 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.7 2.0
21 Garrett Temple TOR 2.8 1.4 0.8
22 AJ Griffin ATL 2.6 1.1 0.7
23 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.3 1.3 0.5
24 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.2 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.