NBA games

MEM @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
110–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27262928110
IND23284124116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home IND
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 25 5 4
Vince Williams Jr. S 36 20 8 1
GG Jackson 29 18 4 1
David Roddy S 32 14 5 1
Santi Aldama S 28 10 6 1
John Konchar S 30 9 7 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. 17 4 3 4
Ziaire Williams 14 4 3 3
Xavier Tillman 17 3 4 1
Jacob Gilyard 5 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 30 24 7 1
Jalen Smith S 30 19 10 2
Pascal Siakam S 35 19 6 6
Andrew Nembhard S 37 16 4 9
Aaron Nesmith S 37 16 7 6
Isaiah Jackson 14 10 7 1
Ben Sheppard 20 6 0 1
Buddy Hield S 19 3 3 3
Obi Toppin 17 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 4-foot two point shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
20%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
18%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
11%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
11%
5 Buddy Hield IND
11%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
7 John Konchar MEM
10%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND
0%
10 David Roddy MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
46%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 26.3 6.1 3.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.9 6.3 5.4
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 17.3 6.1 3.8
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.1 2.4 5.3
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.9 4.6 1.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.6 4.1 2.1
7 Buddy Hield IND 11.8 3.4 3.2
8 Obi Toppin IND 10.8 4.6 1.9
9 David Roddy MEM 10.5 4.6 2.3
10 Jalen Smith IND 9.8 6.3 1.3
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.5 2.7 6.1
12 Santi Aldama MEM 8.9 5.5 1.8
13 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.7 3.0 2.0
14 GG Jackson MEM 8.1 2.9 1.0
15 Xavier Tillman MEM 7.8 5.1 2.1
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.1 2.6 3.5
17 Derrick Rose MEM 7.0 1.8 3.4
18 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.2 1.6 3.6
19 John Konchar MEM 5.4 3.9 2.0
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.5 3.6 0.8
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.5 2.2 1.3
22 Jarace Walker IND 4.3 1.8 1.1
23 Jake LaRavia MEM 3.0 1.0 0.5
24 Kendall Brown IND 2.7 1.4 0.6
25 Isaiah Wong IND 2.6 1.2 0.9
26 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 1.9 1.2 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.