NBA games

SAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
120–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29343126120
DAL25242640115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 34 3 5
Harrison Barnes S 38 20 6 3
Kevin Huerter S 30 18 4 5
Domantas Sabonis S 36 17 11 4
Keegan Murray S 40 15 4 2
Malik Monk 20 9 3 6
JaVale McGee 10 6 2 0
Trey Lyles 17 1 4 1
Davion Mitchell 11 0 2 1
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 46 28 10 17
Grant Williams S 38 27 8 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 36 19 4 1
Dereck Lively II S 31 13 9 0
Josh Green S 33 11 3 5
Seth Curry 11 7 2 1
Maxi Kleber 13 5 2 0
Jaden Hardy S 19 3 5 7
A.J. Lawson 4 2 0 1
Richaun Holmes 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grant Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Grant Williams makes 23-foot three point shot (Jaden Hardy assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
17%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
14%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
5 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
6 Josh Green DAL
9%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
8 Grant Williams DAL
8%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
5%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
11%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 34.9 8.2 11.4
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.2 12.4 9.3
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.1 3.4 4.6
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 19.9 3.9 2.6
5 Keegan Murray SAC 16.8 5.9 1.9
6 Malik Monk SAC 16.0 3.4 5.9
7 Josh Green DAL 12.8 4.0 2.6
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.1 2.8 1.4
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.2 4.0 2.6
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.6 7.6 1.9
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.7 2.4 1.9
12 Grant Williams DAL 6.9 2.8 2.3
13 Trey Lyles SAC 6.8 3.6 1.3
14 Chris Duarte SAC 5.2 2.1 1.3
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.2 3.3 1.8
16 A.J. Lawson DAL 5.1 1.9 1.0
17 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.4 1.4 1.3
18 Seth Curry DAL 4.1 1.1 0.8
19 Brandon Williams DAL 4.0 1.1 0.9
20 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.8 3.0 0.8
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.8 2.6 1.1
22 JaVale McGee SAC 3.4 2.4 0.5
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 1.4 0.6
24 Keon Ellis SAC 2.7 1.1 0.7
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.5 1.3 0.7
26 Alex Len SAC 2.2 3.0 1.0
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.5 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.