NBA games

LAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
145–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
LAL333523271215145
GS303336191214144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home GS
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 48 36 20 12
Anthony Davis S 45 29 13 3
D'Angelo Russell S 49 28 3 5
Austin Reaves S 47 17 2 6
Jarred Vanderbilt 41 14 9 5
Rui Hachimura 18 11 4 0
Christian Wood 11 8 1 1
Max Christie 8 2 0 0
Taurean Prince S 24 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 43 46 3 7
Klay Thompson S 47 24 4 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 43 22 9 2
Andrew Wiggins S 41 22 5 3
Brandin Podziemski 28 10 7 5
Draymond Green S 46 8 14 11
Dario Saric 15 5 4 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 6 4 1 0
Cory Joseph 15 3 2 2
Kevon Looney 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
18%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 Klay Thompson GS
9%
6 Taurean Prince LAL
9%
7 Kevon Looney GS
8%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Andrew Wiggins GS
7%
10 Dario Saric GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.2 4.1 6.7
2 LeBron James LAL 24.8 7.3 7.8
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.7 11.7 5.2
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 23.0 2.8 6.5
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 21.5 5.7 3.2
6 Klay Thompson GS 20.0 3.3 3.4
7 Austin Reaves LAL 14.2 3.1 5.0
8 Draymond Green GS 11.1 5.5 5.3
9 Dario Saric GS 11.1 4.4 3.8
10 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.7 3.6 2.0
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.7 4.7 3.2
12 Taurean Prince LAL 9.8 2.9 1.7
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 9.7 5.8 1.4
14 Rui Hachimura LAL 8.7 3.0 1.3
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 8.2 5.6 1.7
16 Christian Wood LAL 7.7 5.7 1.2
17 Kevon Looney GS 6.1 5.2 1.6
18 Max Christie LAL 5.3 2.2 1.2
19 Cory Joseph GS 4.0 1.7 1.3
20 Lester Quinones GS 3.7 1.5 0.8
21 Gui Santos GS 3.3 1.9 0.6
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.5 1.6 0.5
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.1 1.8 0.5
24 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.0 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.