NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
112–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN36282622112
SA23292833113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 32 6 12
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 19 5 4
Rudy Gobert S 37 19 7 1
Naz Reid 22 13 2 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 11 4 7
Jaden McDaniels S 33 7 3 2
Shake Milton 16 7 1 2
Kyle Anderson 19 4 3 1
Jordan McLaughlin 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 36 25 4 5
Victor Wembanyama S 30 23 10 6
Keldon Johnson 27 14 7 2
Jeremy Sochan S 31 13 4 2
Tre Jones S 29 12 3 11
Dominick Barlow 18 9 4 1
Doug McDermott 17 9 1 1
Julian Champagnie S 18 4 3 0
Cedi Osman 16 2 3 4
Blake Wesley 20 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
14%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
3 Jeremy Sochan SA
13%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
5 Devin Vassell SA
12%
6 Tre Jones SA
9%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
19%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 26.2 8.0 4.0
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.4 10.5 3.7
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.3 4.7 6.3
4 Devin Vassell SA 16.3 3.9 4.7
5 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.2 6.5 3.6
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.2 12.0 1.8
7 Keldon Johnson SA 14.1 4.5 2.0
8 Tre Jones SA 13.7 3.7 6.6
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.1 4.0 1.9
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.5 4.4 1.6
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.2 2.6 2.8
12 Julian Champagnie SA 7.6 3.2 1.4
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.9 3.3 4.4
14 Cedi Osman SA 5.9 2.7 1.2
15 Blake Wesley SA 5.8 1.7 2.7
16 Doug McDermott SA 5.6 1.3 1.0
17 Malaki Branham SA 5.5 1.5 1.3
18 Dominick Barlow SA 5.0 4.9 1.3
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.3 1.8 1.8
20 Daishen Nix MIN 4.0 1.3 1.3
21 Devonte' Graham SA 3.6 1.4 1.6
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 2.2 0.8
23 Shake Milton MIN 3.1 1.3 0.9
24 Luka Garza MIN 2.9 1.4 0.5
25 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.1 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.