NO @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
117–141
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 32 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 117 |
| MIL | 36 | 39 | 37 | 29 | 141 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
MIL
51%
49%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram S | 28 | 26 | 6 | 1 |
| Zion Williamson S | 29 | 23 | 2 | 2 |
| Jonas Valanciunas S | 24 | 13 | 10 | 6 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 18 | 10 | 5 | 0 |
| Herbert Jones S | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 29 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Naji Marshall | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum S | 23 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| Jose Alvarado | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Damian Lillard ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 29-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Damian Lillard
MIL
18%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
12%
3
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
12%
4
Brandon Ingram
NO
11%
5
Trey Murphy III
NO
9%
6
Brook Lopez
MIL
9%
7
CJ McCollum
NO
9%
8
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIL
7%
9
Herbert Jones
NO
7%
10
Malik Beasley
MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
35%
Layup
24%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 30.9 | 11.7 | 8.9 |
| 2 | Damian Lillard | MIL | 24.9 | 3.9 | 6.8 |
| 3 | Zion Williamson | NO | 23.1 | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| 4 | CJ McCollum | NO | 20.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Brandon Ingram | NO | 18.0 | 5.0 | 6.6 |
| 6 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 14.0 | 9.4 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Brook Lopez | MIL | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.5 |
| 8 | Herbert Jones | NO | 11.8 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 9 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 11.3 | 6.1 | 1.1 |
| 10 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 11.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 11 | Malik Beasley | MIL | 10.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 12 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 13 | Larry Nance Jr. | NO | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 |
| 14 | Jae Crowder | MIL | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 15 | Naji Marshall | NO | 6.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 16 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 17 | Dyson Daniels | NO | 6.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| 18 | Pat Connaughton | MIL | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 19 | Cameron Payne | MIL | 5.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 20 | MarJon Beauchamp | MIL | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 21 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 23 | AJ Green | MIL | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 24 | Cody Zeller | NO | 3.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 25 | E.J. Liddell | NO | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 26 | Robin Lopez | MIL | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 27 | Thanasis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 28 | Chris Livingston | MIL | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.