NBA games

UTAH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
134–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH47352329134
CHA24234134122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home CHA
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 36 33 12 3
Collin Sexton S 35 24 4 13
John Collins S 32 20 10 0
Jordan Clarkson 31 14 1 2
Keyonte George 13 10 0 1
Walker Kessler 16 10 4 0
Kris Dunn S 17 7 4 6
Kelly Olynyk 18 6 9 8
Ochai Agbaji 16 5 2 2
Simone Fontecchio S 27 5 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington 36 43 2 3
Nick Richards S 36 26 13 1
Miles Bridges S 41 21 9 6
Brandon Miller S 37 12 1 3
Cody Martin S 29 9 7 6
JT Thor 5 5 0 0
Nick Smith Jr. 19 3 0 4
Leaky Black 7 3 0 0
Ish Smith S 29 0 3 12

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"John Collins makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Nick Richards CHA
12%
5 John Collins UTAH
12%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
7 Cody Martin CHA
8%
8 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.6 9.9 3.2
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.9 3.6 6.8
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.2 6.8 3.7
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.4 4.2 5.6
5 John Collins UTAH 15.6 7.5 1.9
6 Brandon Miller CHA 15.2 4.3 2.7
7 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.7 2.7 3.8
8 P.J. Washington CHA 11.4 4.6 2.2
9 Nick Richards CHA 11.0 9.2 1.4
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.1 4.1 2.0
11 Keyonte George UTAH 10.0 2.5 4.1
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.0 4.1 3.2
13 Cody Martin CHA 8.5 3.9 2.7
14 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.3 2.5 1.8
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.2 6.5 1.0
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.6 3.6 4.8
17 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.2 1.5 1.1
18 JT Thor CHA 4.8 3.6 0.9
19 James Bouknight CHA 4.5 1.3 0.9
20 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.4 3.2 0.8
21 Ish Smith CHA 4.3 2.2 2.6
22 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.1 1.4 1.7
23 Nate Mensah CHA 3.4 2.9 1.1
24 Leaky Black CHA 3.2 1.7 0.8
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.7 1.7 0.6
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.6 3.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.