NBA games

LAC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
115–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC26293624115
BOS2118213696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home BOS
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 26 7 2
Daniel Theis 26 18 7 2
Paul George S 22 17 6 1
Terance Mann S 24 14 6 3
Amir Coffey 26 10 3 1
James Harden S 27 9 8 7
Mason Plumlee S 21 8 7 0
Norman Powell 17 4 4 2
Russell Westbrook 15 4 4 5
Brandon Boston 10 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 30 21 11 1
Payton Pritchard 21 12 4 2
Luke Kornet 18 11 5 0
Lamar Stevens 8 8 5 1
Neemias Queta 12 8 5 1
Jaylen Brown S 24 8 6 2
Jrue Holiday S 28 7 3 4
Sam Hauser 20 6 3 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 8 6 1 1
Oshae Brissett 16 5 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
16%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
5 Mason Plumlee LAC
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
9%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
49%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.8 7.3 4.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.3 5.7 4.1
3 Paul George LAC 22.4 5.5 3.1
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.2 6.8 4.7
5 James Harden LAC 17.7 4.6 9.4
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.2 4.7 4.5
7 Derrick White BOS 13.7 4.5 3.5
8 Norman Powell LAC 13.6 3.6 1.3
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 12.6 4.2 4.7
10 Al Horford BOS 10.0 5.9 2.5
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.0 3.5 2.8
12 Terance Mann LAC 9.7 3.1 1.7
13 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.4 5.0 1.2
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.4 3.4 1.2
15 Amir Coffey LAC 6.2 2.2 0.9
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.0 4.3 1.2
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.7 3.2 1.0
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.6 4.1 1.0
19 Brandon Boston LAC 4.2 1.5 0.7
20 Bones Hyland LAC 4.2 1.4 1.1
21 Neemias Queta BOS 3.9 3.4 0.6
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.9 1.5 0.7
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.2 0.9
24 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.4 2.0 0.6
25 Dalano Banton BOS 2.9 1.4 0.8
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.