NBA games

HOU @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
104–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU15253034104
BKN35252818106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home BKN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 33 19 10 1
Cam Whitmore 29 19 9 1
Dillon Brooks S 39 19 5 2
Alperen Sengun S 28 15 11 2
Fred VanVleet S 39 13 4 8
Aaron Holiday 18 6 3 1
Jae'Sean Tate 17 6 5 2
Amen Thompson 15 5 4 2
Jeff Green S 16 2 2 0
Jock Landale 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 41 37 3 3
Mikal Bridges S 41 19 5 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 31 19 7 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 10 2 9
Nic Claxton S 37 10 13 4
Royce O'Neale 23 6 6 0
Dennis Smith Jr. 18 5 3 4
Lonnie Walker IV 14 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nic Claxton BKN
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Jalen Green HOU
14%
4 Mikal Bridges BKN
13%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Jeff Green HOU
9%
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
10 Cam Whitmore HOU
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
45%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
14%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mikal Bridges BKN 24.5 4.8 4.3
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.4 10.2 5.4
3 Jalen Green HOU 19.8 4.8 3.9
4 Cam Thomas BKN 19.4 3.3 3.5
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.7 4.3 6.6
6 Nic Claxton BKN 15.7 12.2 2.2
7 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 12.0 2.4 4.2
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.5 3.4 1.5
9 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.0 4.8 1.0
10 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.9 3.9 4.7
11 Amen Thompson HOU 7.7 4.8 2.3
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.6 6.3 1.6
13 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.4 4.0 1.9
14 Royce O'Neale BKN 7.0 3.9 2.2
15 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 6.6 1.9 1.0
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.4 2.8 1.0
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.2 1.7 1.5
18 Noah Clowney BKN 4.2 2.5 0.5
19 Trendon Watford BKN 4.1 1.7 0.9
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.0 3.1 0.9
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.6 1.4 0.7
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.4 2.9 0.6
23 Nate Hinton HOU 3.2 1.8 0.5
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.1 2.7 0.6
25 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.9 1.8 0.7
26 Harry Giles III BKN 2.5 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.