NBA games

PHI @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
105–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27352617105
DEN31332225111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DEN
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul Reed S 42 30 13 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 25 5 4
Patrick Beverley S 37 17 4 11
Marcus Morris Sr. S 33 17 4 2
KJ Martin 19 7 4 1
Danuel House Jr. 28 6 3 0
Furkan Korkmaz 9 3 1 3
Nicolas Batum S 26 0 4 2
Jaden Springer 7 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 26 16 7
Jamal Murray S 37 23 3 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 20 8 2
Aaron Gordon S 31 18 4 2
Peyton Watson 21 9 3 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 8 1 2
Reggie Jackson 18 3 3 0
Christian Braun 17 2 0 2
DeAndre Jordan 11 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Layup (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
16%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
15%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
7 Patrick Beverley PHI
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
9%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
7%
10 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.7 9.0 6.1
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.6 12.3 9.1
3 Jamal Murray DEN 25.4 4.5 7.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.8 5.4 1.7
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.9 6.3 2.6
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.7 3.3 1.8
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.6 4.1 1.7
8 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.9 2.3 3.0
9 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.7 4.4 2.5
10 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.7 3.6 3.5
11 Peyton Watson DEN 6.6 3.3 1.0
12 Paul Reed PHI 6.1 5.5 0.9
13 Christian Braun DEN 5.8 3.5 0.9
14 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 5.5 2.8 0.7
15 Danuel House Jr. PHI 5.5 2.2 0.9
16 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.8 5.2 0.9
17 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.1 1.0 1.1
18 Justin Holiday DEN 3.8 1.6 0.9
19 Jay Huff DEN 3.7 1.7 0.7
20 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.6 1.2 0.5
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.6 1.5 1.0
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 2.3 0.7
23 KJ Martin PHI 3.4 1.4 0.6
24 Jaden Springer PHI 2.9 1.5 0.7
25 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.8 1.3 0.7
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.