NBA games

MIA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
109–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA30213523109
NY27342836125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home NY
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 28 8 4
Duncan Robinson 26 19 1 3
Tyler Herro S 35 18 1 3
Bam Adebayo S 33 12 13 1
Terry Rozier S 32 10 5 7
Haywood Highsmith S 21 8 4 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 24 6 1 4
Caleb Martin 16 6 3 0
Kevin Love 14 2 2 2
Orlando Robinson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 32 5 8
OG Anunoby S 34 19 1 4
Julius Randle S 32 19 9 3
Josh Hart 32 14 9 5
Quentin Grimes 24 12 4 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 20 11 1 2
Miles McBride 10 9 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 16 4 6 1
Precious Achiuwa 31 4 10 1
Jericho Sims 1 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Julius Randle NY
10%
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
9%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
7 OG Anunoby NY
8%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
17%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.8 3.8 7.0
2 Julius Randle NY 25.5 8.2 6.7
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.5 10.4 5.1
4 Tyler Herro MIA 20.3 5.1 4.1
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.7 4.5 4.2
6 Terry Rozier MIA 19.1 4.0 5.1
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.7 4.0 3.1
8 OG Anunoby NY 15.5 5.0 1.9
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY 13.5 3.8 3.3
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.1 2.6 2.4
11 Caleb Martin MIA 9.5 4.1 1.9
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.0 10.7 2.6
13 Kevin Love MIA 8.8 5.3 1.7
14 Josh Richardson MIA 8.1 2.6 1.4
15 Josh Hart NY 8.0 7.3 2.4
16 Miles McBride NY 7.9 2.1 1.8
17 Quentin Grimes NY 7.7 2.3 1.5
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.6 3.0 1.1
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.4 4.0 1.8
20 Evan Fournier NY 5.7 1.4 0.7
21 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.2 5.5 0.9
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.7 2.4 0.6
23 Malachi Flynn NY 3.4 1.2 0.8
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 2.4 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.4 1.1 0.5
26 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.3 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.