NBA games

WSH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
118–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH36252631118
DET33302219104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DET
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 32 30 6 4
Jordan Poole S 29 17 1 2
Daniel Gafford S 28 15 13 1
Marvin Bagley III 20 13 8 2
Tyus Jones S 30 12 1 9
Deni Avdija S 24 10 5 2
Bilal Coulibaly 31 8 7 2
Corey Kispert 22 8 2 1
Landry Shamet 13 3 5 0
Delon Wright 11 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bojan Bogdanovic S 36 30 3 3
Cade Cunningham S 35 20 4 12
Isaiah Stewart S 32 11 7 2
Jaden Ivey S 26 10 4 1
Jalen Duren S 36 10 18 3
Alec Burks 18 8 4 0
Ausar Thompson 17 8 2 0
Kevin Knox II 11 4 0 0
Killian Hayes 10 2 1 0
Monte Morris 8 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
9 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
7%
10 Killian Hayes DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
23%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.9 4.4 8.4
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.8 8.6 5.7
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.7 4.0 3.4
4 Jaden Ivey DET 21.0 5.1 6.1
5 Deni Avdija WSH 19.0 6.9 4.8
6 Jalen Duren DET 17.6 12.1 3.0
7 Jordan Poole WSH 17.5 2.8 3.3
8 Alec Burks DET 16.6 3.2 2.4
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 14.3 6.7 1.5
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.7 6.8 2.8
11 Tyus Jones WSH 13.3 3.3 8.5
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.9 7.5 1.6
13 Corey Kispert WSH 9.8 2.7 1.7
14 Kevin Knox II DET 9.1 3.2 1.4
15 Landry Shamet WSH 8.1 1.9 1.5
16 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 7.7 3.7 2.0
17 Ausar Thompson DET 6.9 5.7 1.3
18 Killian Hayes DET 6.8 3.0 6.1
19 Marcus Sasser DET 6.7 2.0 3.4
20 Delon Wright WSH 5.4 2.0 2.1
21 Mike Muscala DET 5.4 3.6 1.3
22 James Wiseman DET 4.7 3.7 0.5
23 Danilo Gallinari DET 4.6 1.7 0.9
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.1 2.2 0.8
25 Trey Jemison III WSH 3.7 4.4 1.0
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.3 1.7 0.7
27 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.3 1.1 0.5
28 Joe Harris DET 2.4 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.