NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
100–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR33242122100
SA26362628116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 41 40 2 10
Deandre Ayton S 34 20 12 2
Toumani Camara 23 12 4 1
Scoot Henderson 6 6 1 0
Matisse Thybulle S 27 5 1 4
Jerami Grant S 10 4 1 2
Jabari Walker S 37 3 9 2
Rayan Rupert 8 3 0 1
Duop Reath 13 3 3 0
Taze Moore 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremy Sochan S 32 31 14 2
Victor Wembanyama S 29 23 12 4
Keldon Johnson 30 21 16 1
Devin Vassell S 32 15 4 2
Tre Jones S 24 9 1 7
Cedi Osman 18 7 3 1
Julian Champagnie S 19 5 4 3
Zach Collins 18 4 3 0
Blake Wesley 24 1 2 8
Sandro Mamukelashvili 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
13%
2 Tre Jones SA
11%
3 Devin Vassell SA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
6 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
7 Blake Wesley SA
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
32%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.0 10.1 4.0
2 Jerami Grant POR 20.9 4.0 2.7
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.7 4.1 5.3
4 Devin Vassell SA 17.5 4.0 5.5
5 Tre Jones SA 15.0 4.0 7.0
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.7 3.7 2.2
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.6 6.1 4.2
8 Scoot Henderson POR 14.0 3.4 4.3
9 Deandre Ayton POR 13.3 10.7 1.8
10 Zach Collins SA 12.5 5.2 3.0
11 Jabari Walker POR 12.4 8.5 1.7
12 Duop Reath POR 11.7 6.1 1.9
13 Julian Champagnie SA 7.5 3.1 1.5
14 Toumani Camara POR 6.8 4.7 1.4
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.1 3.0 1.3
16 Doug McDermott SA 5.8 1.4 1.1
17 Malaki Branham SA 5.8 1.7 1.5
18 Blake Wesley SA 5.7 1.8 2.2
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.5 2.2 1.3
20 Kris Murray POR 4.8 1.8 1.0
21 Devonte' Graham SA 3.9 1.6 1.8
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.6 2.3 1.0
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.4 1.6 0.8
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.