NBA games

CLE @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
112–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30242632112
MIL28292023100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIL
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 32 8 6
Jarrett Allen S 36 24 14 1
Caris LeVert 24 12 4 5
Max Strus S 35 11 7 4
Georges Niang 27 10 5 2
Dean Wade S 21 9 5 0
Sam Merrill 17 7 0 0
Damian Jones 12 4 7 1
Isaac Okoro S 31 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 22 11 9
Damian Lillard S 38 22 4 3
Khris Middleton S 36 14 8 8
Bobby Portis 22 12 8 0
Brook Lopez S 35 11 12 0
Pat Connaughton 14 6 0 0
Jae Crowder 22 6 3 0
Cameron Payne 11 4 2 0
Malik Beasley S 27 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:14 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Malik Beasley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
6%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.8 11.1 8.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.6 5.0 7.8
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.3 3.7 6.4
4 Caris LeVert CLE 19.1 3.8 5.6
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.6 11.4 4.0
6 Khris Middleton MIL 16.7 3.9 5.7
7 Sam Merrill CLE 13.6 3.7 3.0
8 Brook Lopez MIL 13.3 6.8 2.5
9 Georges Niang CLE 12.9 4.6 1.7
10 Max Strus CLE 10.7 3.9 3.5
11 Bobby Portis MIL 10.7 5.6 1.0
12 Malik Beasley MIL 10.6 3.2 1.5
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.2 3.3 1.9
14 Jae Crowder MIL 7.5 2.8 1.2
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.7 1.5 1.6
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 3.4 1.2
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.4 3.0 2.5
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 2.2 1.2
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.3 4.5 1.4
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.1 3.4 0.9
21 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.1 0.6
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.6 1.8 0.8
23 Damian Jones CLE 3.4 1.5 0.7
24 Pete Nance CLE 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.2 0.8 0.5
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.1 1.1 0.6
27 Chris Livingston MIL 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.