NBA games

ORL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
106–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL31282522106
MEM31372217107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MEM
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 34 27 5 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 20 9 2
Franz Wagner S 38 18 5 4
Moritz Wagner 13 12 3 0
Markelle Fultz S 21 10 3 3
Jonathan Isaac 22 10 5 0
Cole Anthony 23 5 7 4
Joe Ingles 17 2 0 0
Anthony Black 27 2 3 1
Trevelin Queen 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 30 8 2
Ziaire Williams 30 17 4 5
Luke Kennard S 30 15 5 6
Santi Aldama S 29 14 7 5
Vince Williams Jr. S 36 11 5 4
John Konchar S 26 7 1 2
GG Jackson 11 5 0 1
Xavier Tillman 13 5 2 0
David Roddy 17 3 10 3
Jacob Gilyard 13 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Vince Williams Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Vince Williams Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
5 Markelle Fultz ORL
7%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
7 David Roddy MEM
7%
8 Anthony Black ORL
6%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
10 John Konchar MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.9 7.0 5.6
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.0 5.7 4.2
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.7 6.1 3.3
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 15.6 6.1 3.7
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.9 5.7 1.7
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.2 3.6 2.0
7 Luke Kennard MEM 10.9 2.9 3.5
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.4 4.8 1.6
9 David Roddy MEM 9.8 3.8 1.9
10 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.2 3.4 3.2
11 Cole Anthony ORL 9.1 3.5 2.3
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.0 2.8 1.6
13 Caleb Houstan ORL 7.9 2.0 1.3
14 Santi Aldama MEM 7.7 5.1 1.3
15 GG Jackson MEM 7.7 2.9 0.8
16 Xavier Tillman MEM 7.6 5.7 2.0
17 Derrick Rose MEM 6.6 1.8 3.2
18 Chuma Okeke ORL 6.5 4.0 1.1
19 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.9 1.5 3.7
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.8 7.2 1.4
21 Joe Ingles ORL 5.5 2.2 3.1
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 3.1 0.5
23 Anthony Black ORL 4.5 1.6 1.3
24 John Konchar MEM 4.3 3.7 1.5
25 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.9 1.8 1.3
26 Jake LaRavia MEM 2.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.