NBA games

LAC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
127–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC29372932127
TOR20322926107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home TOR
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 35 22 10 13
Paul George S 28 21 2 1
Russell Westbrook 26 20 5 3
Norman Powell 26 17 4 0
Kawhi Leonard S 31 16 7 3
Mason Plumlee S 25 12 12 3
Daniel Theis 18 6 4 1
Terance Mann S 29 6 3 2
Amir Coffey 19 5 2 2
Brandon Boston 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 23 5 4
RJ Barrett S 36 22 6 4
Gary Trent Jr. S 29 13 1 3
Dennis Schroder 28 13 4 5
Thaddeus Young S 24 12 6 4
Chris Boucher 17 9 5 0
Bruce Brown S 32 9 9 2
Gradey Dick 21 6 4 2
Jalen McDaniels 2 0 0 0
Jordan Nwora 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Thaddeus Young · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Thaddeus Young makes 6-foot hook shot (Gary Trent Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Paul George LAC
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
5 Mason Plumlee LAC
10%
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
10%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
9%
9 Jontay Porter TOR
8%
10 Norman Powell LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
37%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 24.0 5.8 3.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.9 6.9 5.0
3 RJ Barrett TOR 23.3 6.6 3.7
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.6 6.5 5.7
5 James Harden LAC 18.6 4.2 10.0
6 Norman Powell LAC 13.6 3.4 1.4
7 Bruce Brown TOR 12.1 4.6 2.6
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 12.1 2.3 3.6
9 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.4 4.0 5.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.7 2.3 1.3
11 Terance Mann LAC 10.0 3.1 1.7
12 Amir Coffey LAC 6.1 1.8 1.0
13 Daniel Theis LAC 6.0 4.1 1.2
14 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.8 4.3 1.1
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.2 4.4 0.7
16 Jontay Porter TOR 5.1 3.4 1.8
17 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.7 2.8 1.9
18 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.6 2.2 1.0
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.5 1.2 0.5
20 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 3.4 1.8 0.6
21 Brandon Boston LAC 3.3 0.8 0.5
22 Bones Hyland LAC 3.3 0.8 0.9
23 Jordan Nwora TOR 2.9 0.9 0.6
24 Gradey Dick TOR 2.9 1.0 0.7
25 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 1.9 1.1 0.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.9 0.4
27 Kira Lewis Jr. TOR 1.7 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.