NBA games

PHX @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
131–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX40403417131
IND31393528133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home IND
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 62 5 4
Kevin Durant S 39 20 7 6
Eric Gordon 30 14 2 2
Bradley Beal S 34 12 4 3
Grayson Allen S 37 11 3 1
Drew Eubanks 16 8 5 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 20 2 4 5
Keita Bates-Diop 9 2 4 1
Chimezie Metu 2 0 1 0
Josh Okogie 13 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 31 7 4
Obi Toppin 33 23 11 3
Aaron Nesmith S 34 22 6 3
Andrew Nembhard S 30 22 1 8
Jalen Smith 20 13 10 0
Bennedict Mathurin 21 11 5 0
Myles Turner S 18 5 3 2
Buddy Hield S 14 2 2 4
T.J. McConnell 18 2 1 8
Ben Sheppard 18 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Layup (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Buddy Hield IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
27%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.4 3.8 6.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 27.4 6.4 4.8
3 Bradley Beal PHX 22.6 4.9 5.4
4 Pascal Siakam IND 22.4 6.2 5.1
5 Myles Turner IND 18.0 6.7 2.0
6 Grayson Allen PHX 15.7 4.0 3.5
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.1 3.7 2.4
8 Buddy Hield IND 12.5 3.6 3.2
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.8 4.3 1.6
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.5 2.4 5.5
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.1 9.8 3.6
12 T.J. McConnell IND 9.9 2.9 6.1
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.5 3.6 1.8
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.5 5.4 1.4
15 Eric Gordon PHX 9.3 2.5 1.4
16 Nassir Little PHX 5.1 2.4 0.8
17 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.8 3.0 0.8
18 Josh Okogie PHX 4.6 2.2 1.3
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.6 3.4 0.8
20 Jarace Walker IND 4.5 1.9 1.1
21 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.3 3.3 0.7
22 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.3 1.7 1.1
23 Ben Sheppard IND 4.0 2.1 1.1
24 Jordan Goodwin PHX 3.1 1.9 0.8
25 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.7 1.4 0.6
26 Kendall Brown IND 2.7 1.4 0.6
27 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.0 1.1 0.3
28 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.