NBA games

HOU @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
138–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU30254439138
CHA28252526104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CHA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 28 36 10 4
Cam Whitmore 20 24 11 2
Fred VanVleet S 30 14 3 3
Amen Thompson 23 13 6 8
Dillon Brooks S 25 12 0 1
Alperen Sengun S 25 11 6 7
Aaron Holiday 19 10 1 6
Jock Landale 15 6 6 2
Reggie Bullock Jr. 8 5 0 0
Boban Marjanovic 7 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 36 21 7 3
LaMelo Ball S 23 15 2 8
Nick Richards S 27 14 7 1
P.J. Washington 29 12 2 2
Nick Smith Jr. 17 10 1 0
Bryce McGowens 7 8 1 0
Cody Martin S 19 6 1 0
James Bouknight 7 5 0 0
Brandon Miller S 20 5 1 2
Frank Ntilikina 9 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
19%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Nick Richards CHA
8%
7 Jeff Green HOU
7%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 25.4 5.1 8.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.7 10.6 5.8
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.0 7.0 3.4
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.4 4.4 4.0
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.6 3.9 7.7
6 Brandon Miller CHA 16.3 4.5 2.6
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.6 8.9 1.5
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.7 3.6 1.8
9 P.J. Washington CHA 11.1 4.7 2.1
10 Nick Richards CHA 10.5 9.1 1.2
11 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.4 4.2 0.9
12 Cody Martin CHA 8.8 4.1 2.7
13 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.2 2.7 1.7
14 Jeff Green HOU 7.0 3.0 1.2
15 Amen Thompson HOU 6.8 4.7 2.1
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.9 1.2
17 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.6 1.4 1.2
18 Ish Smith CHA 4.4 2.5 2.6
19 JT Thor CHA 4.2 3.7 0.7
20 Nate Mensah CHA 3.7 3.3 1.0
21 Frank Ntilikina CHA 3.7 1.6 1.8
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 3.0 0.9
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.6 2.7 0.6
24 Nate Hinton HOU 3.3 1.6 0.6
25 James Bouknight CHA 3.3 0.9 0.6
26 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.2 2.1 0.8
27 Leaky Black CHA 2.9 1.6 0.7
28 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.8 1.0 0.5
29 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.2 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.