NBA games

DAL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
148–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27394240148
ATL31353641143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home ATL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 45 73 10 7
Josh Green S 35 21 2 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 13 4 3
Grant Williams S 28 9 5 4
Dante Exum 27 9 0 3
Dereck Lively II S 28 9 11 4
Jaden Hardy 14 8 1 1
Richaun Holmes 14 4 3 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 18 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 33 30 1 11
Jalen Johnson S 37 25 3 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 24 4 2
Dejounte Murray S 37 22 5 7
Saddiq Bey S 38 16 7 5
Clint Capela S 25 10 8 2
Onyeka Okongwu 23 8 6 2
Garrison Mathews 14 8 2 0
Patty Mills 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes layup (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
17%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
8%
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
8%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
7%
8 Saddiq Bey ATL
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
6%
10 Josh Green DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
15%
Layup
67%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 52.3 8.1 10.2
2 Trae Young ATL 25.5 3.4 9.7
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.0 6.4 5.2
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 20.0 3.9 2.4
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.1 8.4 4.2
6 Dante Exum DAL 14.1 3.6 3.9
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 14.0 3.1 2.6
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.6 5.6 1.7
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.4 4.0 1.4
10 Josh Green DAL 10.7 4.1 2.3
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.1 8.1 1.6
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.9 7.2 1.5
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.3 9.0 0.9
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 2.6 1.9
15 Grant Williams DAL 6.3 2.7 2.1
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.9 1.7 1.3
17 A.J. Lawson DAL 5.7 2.3 1.0
18 Patty Mills ATL 5.1 1.4 1.0
19 Brandon Williams DAL 4.6 1.5 0.9
20 Seth Curry DAL 4.2 1.2 0.8
21 Trent Forrest ATL 4.2 1.9 2.0
22 Richaun Holmes DAL 4.1 3.5 0.7
23 AJ Griffin ATL 3.0 1.3 0.6
24 Seth Lundy ATL 2.9 1.3 0.6
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.5 1.4 0.7
26 Wesley Matthews ATL 1.9 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.