NBA games

CHI @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
132–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI32253639132
LAL31423929141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 41 32 2 10
Coby White S 43 25 7 3
Nikola Vucevic S 39 20 8 1
Ayo Dosunmu 30 18 2 1
Alex Caruso S 35 17 4 6
Andre Drummond 17 11 9 1
Patrick Williams S 24 6 6 2
Dalen Terry 3 3 0 1
Jevon Carter 8 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 38 29 0 4
LeBron James S 36 25 4 12
Anthony Davis S 36 22 11 6
Austin Reaves S 33 20 3 8
Jarred Vanderbilt 27 17 5 0
Taurean Prince S 30 14 4 2
Rui Hachimura 19 10 3 2
Max Christie 9 2 0 1
Christian Wood 12 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
16%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
45%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.9 6.5 7.7
2 Coby White CHI 24.1 5.4 6.1
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.9 11.0 5.1
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI 22.2 4.8 5.3
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.7 2.9 6.5
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 11.0 4.4
7 Austin Reaves LAL 14.1 3.4 5.7
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.1 3.2 2.7
9 Patrick Williams CHI 11.2 3.1 2.2
10 Alex Caruso CHI 10.3 3.7 2.8
11 Taurean Prince LAL 9.3 3.0 1.7
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 8.8 2.9 1.2
13 Christian Wood LAL 8.4 6.1 1.4
14 Andre Drummond CHI 8.3 7.8 1.0
15 Torrey Craig CHI 8.1 4.1 1.1
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.6 5.3 1.7
17 Cam Reddish LAL 6.2 2.1 1.2
18 Max Christie LAL 5.3 2.4 1.2
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.2 1.2 1.1
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.1 1.4 1.1
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.8 1.5 0.6
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 1.7 0.5
23 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.3 1.3 0.7
24 Julian Phillips CHI 1.6 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.