NBA games

SAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
134–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC40352930134
GS32402932133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home GS
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 40 39 4 0
De'Aaron Fox S 36 29 1 5
Domantas Sabonis S 35 18 8 13
Keegan Murray S 38 14 6 1
Kevin Huerter S 33 12 10 4
Davion Mitchell 15 10 2 4
Trey Lyles 15 8 0 2
Malik Monk 19 4 2 3
Kessler Edwards 6 0 1 1
Chris Duarte 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 33 6 2
Jonathan Kuminga 30 31 3 3
Andrew Wiggins S 31 17 4 4
Klay Thompson S 31 16 1 1
Dario Saric S 20 14 4 5
Brandin Podziemski 27 7 3 2
Cory Joseph 17 6 5 0
Draymond Green 31 5 4 11
Kevon Looney S 16 4 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointer (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
15%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
5 Klay Thompson GS
9%
6 Kevon Looney GS
8%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
7%
8 Dario Saric GS
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
10 Chris Duarte SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
19%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 3.6 6.9
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.9 12.1 9.2
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 21.9 2.9 5.0
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 19.3 6.1 3.1
5 Malik Monk SAC 18.9 3.0 6.5
6 Klay Thompson GS 18.5 3.3 3.4
7 Keegan Murray SAC 17.4 5.7 1.8
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.5 5.3 3.5
9 Draymond Green GS 11.3 5.6 5.5
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.0 2.3 1.2
11 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.9 4.0 2.0
12 Dario Saric GS 10.1 4.9 3.8
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.0 3.0 2.2
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.0 5.9 1.5
15 Trey Lyles SAC 6.3 3.4 1.3
16 Kevon Looney GS 6.2 5.2 1.4
17 Chris Duarte SAC 4.0 1.6 1.0
18 JaVale McGee SAC 3.7 2.4 0.6
19 Cory Joseph GS 3.7 1.3 1.3
20 Lester Quinones GS 3.7 1.5 0.9
21 Gui Santos GS 3.3 1.9 0.7
22 Davion Mitchell SAC 3.2 0.9 1.0
23 Keon Ellis SAC 2.7 1.2 0.7
24 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.4 1.8 0.6
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.2 0.9 0.3
26 Alex Len SAC 2.2 2.6 1.0
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.5 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.