NBA games

DEN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
84–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2120251884
NY33293624122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home NY
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 27 31 11 3
Aaron Gordon S 30 12 5 2
Jamal Murray S 30 9 2 7
Peyton Watson 23 7 4 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 22 5 0 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 22 5 6 0
Christian Braun 15 4 3 0
Justin Holiday 12 4 1 0
Jay Huff 5 3 0 0
Jalen Pickett 7 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 29 26 2 1
Jalen Brunson S 27 21 1 4
Quentin Grimes 23 19 5 0
Julius Randle S 30 17 7 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 16 3 6
Miles McBride 21 13 1 1
Josh Hart 26 4 7 3
Precious Achiuwa 23 2 10 3
Malachi Flynn 4 2 0 0
Jericho Sims S 25 2 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
15%
2 Julius Randle NY
13%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Jericho Sims NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
16%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.7 11.1 9.3
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.6 4.0 8.4
3 Julius Randle NY 26.0 7.9 6.6
4 Jamal Murray DEN 24.6 4.3 7.0
5 OG Anunoby NY 15.2 5.0 1.8
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.6 4.7 1.6
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.5 6.4 2.4
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY 12.9 3.7 3.1
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.4 3.3 1.8
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.8 1.9 2.8
11 Josh Hart NY 8.4 6.7 2.4
12 Miles McBride NY 8.4 2.0 1.9
13 Quentin Grimes NY 7.6 2.5 1.6
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 2.9 0.7
15 Evan Fournier NY 6.0 1.4 0.7
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.3 4.6 0.9
17 Christian Braun DEN 4.9 2.9 0.7
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 4.1 0.7
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.3 1.5 0.6
20 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 1.9 0.6
21 Malachi Flynn NY 2.7 0.8 0.8
22 Justin Holiday DEN 2.4 0.8 0.7
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.0 1.2 0.4
24 Jay Huff DEN 1.5 0.9 0.3
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.5 0.7 0.4
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.