NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
143–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS42353630143
MIA29352620110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 32 26 8 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 21 19 4 1
Jaylen Brown S 27 18 4 5
Jrue Holiday S 29 17 5 5
Derrick White S 29 15 6 6
Luke Kornet 19 12 5 1
Payton Pritchard 23 11 3 3
Al Horford 23 8 7 6
Svi Mykhailiuk 3 6 0 0
Sam Hauser 12 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 29 19 3 6
Bam Adebayo S 29 19 5 2
Jimmy Butler III S 29 17 3 4
Haywood Highsmith S 26 14 3 1
Josh Richardson 24 8 2 3
Caleb Martin 22 8 3 2
Terry Rozier S 29 7 2 3
Thomas Bryant 13 7 5 2
Duncan Robinson 20 5 0 2
Nikola Jovic 7 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terry Rozier · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Terry Rozier makes 4-foot two point shot (Jimmy Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
9 Josh Richardson MIA
6%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
15%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.3 7.6 4.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.4 5.7 4.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.0 11.2 5.2
4 Terry Rozier MIA 21.2 4.3 5.5
5 Tyler Herro MIA 21.0 5.6 4.0
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.0 5.0 5.0
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.0 6.1 2.8
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.3 4.7 4.0
9 Derrick White BOS 12.7 4.4 3.2
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.0 3.0 2.5
11 Al Horford BOS 9.6 5.9 2.4
12 Caleb Martin MIA 9.6 4.5 1.9
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.1 3.3 2.4
14 Josh Richardson MIA 8.6 3.2 1.6
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.2 4.5 1.9
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.6 3.5 1.1
17 Sam Hauser BOS 6.4 3.6 1.2
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.9 4.0 1.1
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.7 3.2 0.7
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.7 2.5 0.7
21 Neemias Queta BOS 3.5 3.4 0.4
22 Cole Swider MIA 3.3 0.8 0.5
23 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.3 1.4 0.3
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.3 0.9 0.4
25 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.1 1.5 0.6
26 Dalano Banton BOS 1.7 0.9 0.5
27 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.7 2.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.