NBA games

MIN @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
96–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN2436211596
BKN3117262094

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home BKN
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 27 10 3
Anthony Edwards S 36 24 1 3
Mike Conley S 33 10 2 4
Rudy Gobert S 33 10 13 1
Jaden McDaniels S 33 9 4 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 6 1 4
Naz Reid 23 5 4 2
Kyle Anderson 18 3 3 5
Jordan McLaughlin 11 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas 28 25 6 3
Mikal Bridges S 35 21 1 3
Nic Claxton S 39 16 11 4
Spencer Dinwiddie S 32 14 2 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 36 8 2 2
Cameron Johnson S 22 5 4 3
Royce O'Neale 18 3 4 2
Lonnie Walker IV 14 2 0 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 16 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 6-foot hook shot (Mikal Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges BKN
14%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
8%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
7%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
38%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.8 7.7 3.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.8 5.8 5.8
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 23.2 4.7 4.0
4 Cam Thomas BKN 15.9 2.7 2.8
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.7 12.6 1.6
6 Nic Claxton BKN 13.9 10.5 1.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.0 3.8 1.9
8 Naz Reid MIN 11.5 4.6 1.5
9 Cameron Johnson BKN 11.4 3.7 2.8
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 10.0 1.9 4.2
11 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 9.0 3.8 4.5
12 Mike Conley MIN 8.9 2.5 6.1
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.7 2.6 2.4
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.8 3.1 4.0
15 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 6.7 3.8 1.7
16 Royce O'Neale BKN 6.7 3.9 2.6
17 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 6.5 1.8 1.0
18 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.1 1.9 1.9
19 Trendon Watford BKN 3.9 1.6 0.8
20 Keon Johnson BKN 3.9 0.8 0.8
21 Noah Clowney BKN 3.7 2.4 0.4
22 Shake Milton MIN 3.2 1.6 0.9
23 Luka Garza MIN 3.1 1.7 0.4
24 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.7 1.6 0.6
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.3 1.1 0.4
26 Harry Giles III BKN 2.3 1.4 0.3
27 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 1.7 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.