NBA games

UTAH @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
123–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH36283425123
WSH29272230108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home WSH
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 33 29 7 5
John Collins S 33 22 16 1
Jordan Clarkson 30 19 3 8
Kelly Olynyk 21 19 4 2
Collin Sexton S 17 11 3 6
Simone Fontecchio S 21 10 7 2
Keyonte George 31 5 4 7
Kris Dunn S 17 4 1 3
Walker Kessler 15 4 3 0
Omer Yurtseven 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 34 26 6 5
Jordan Poole S 28 18 2 2
Marvin Bagley III 16 14 3 1
Deni Avdija S 27 13 6 5
Daniel Gafford S 31 13 9 1
Tyus Jones S 34 12 6 14
Corey Kispert 20 8 0 1
Landry Shamet 11 2 0 1
Bilal Coulibaly 29 2 1 2
Trey Jemison III 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes two point shot (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 John Collins UTAH
11%
5 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
7 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
9 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
10 Kris Dunn UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
45%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Collin Sexton UTAH 24.8 3.5 6.3
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.8 9.4 3.2
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 20.7 4.2 5.3
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH 20.7 7.7 5.7
5 Deni Avdija WSH 18.8 6.7 4.7
6 Jordan Poole WSH 16.6 2.4 3.2
7 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 15.4 2.9 4.0
8 John Collins UTAH 14.9 7.2 2.1
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 14.1 6.8 1.5
10 Tyus Jones WSH 13.3 2.8 8.0
11 Keyonte George UTAH 11.6 2.6 3.7
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.6 7.6 1.6
13 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.2 3.9 2.3
14 Corey Kispert WSH 10.2 2.7 1.8
15 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.7 4.5 2.0
16 Landry Shamet WSH 8.4 1.7 1.6
17 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.0 3.9 3.3
18 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.7 7.3 1.1
19 Kris Dunn UTAH 7.1 3.9 5.0
20 Delon Wright WSH 6.2 2.0 2.5
21 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.2 3.3 0.9
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.8 2.3 0.9
23 Trey Jemison III WSH 4.2 4.9 1.2
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 4.0 2.2 0.6
25 Jared Butler WSH 3.7 0.7 1.8
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.5 1.7 0.8
27 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.0 1.0 0.5
28 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.1 3.0 0.5
29 Jules Bernard WSH 1.8 0.6 0.4
30 Johnny Davis WSH 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.