NBA games

PHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
122–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI25362833122
IND34393724134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home IND
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 31 7 3
Tyrese Maxey S 29 22 1 2
Ricky Council IV 12 11 1 0
KJ Martin 31 11 3 2
Danuel House Jr. 19 10 2 1
Nicolas Batum S 22 10 3 1
Jaden Springer 15 8 2 0
Paul Reed 17 7 6 1
Patrick Beverley S 19 4 3 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 22 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 26 13 10
Myles Turner S 27 20 9 1
Andrew Nembhard S 29 19 2 8
Aaron Nesmith S 29 16 8 3
Obi Toppin 19 13 5 0
Bennedict Mathurin 25 13 5 4
Buddy Hield S 26 11 3 2
T.J. McConnell 24 8 4 5
Jalen Smith 9 6 1 0
Ben Sheppard 15 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Myles Turner makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
24%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
9 Buddy Hield IND
6%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
33%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 35.0 10.0 5.1
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.1 3.6 7.2
3 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 5.7 4.2
4 Tobias Harris PHI 20.1 5.7 3.6
5 Myles Turner IND 16.9 6.7 1.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.4 4.0 2.3
7 Buddy Hield IND 13.3 3.6 3.2
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.9 4.4 1.7
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.0 2.4 4.6
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.0 4.1 1.5
11 Jalen Smith IND 10.0 5.7 1.5
12 T.J. McConnell IND 10.0 2.9 5.8
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.4 3.3 1.7
14 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.6 3.4 3.0
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.4 4.4 2.5
16 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 5.6 2.9 0.7
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.3 3.8 0.9
18 Paul Reed PHI 5.2 5.5 0.8
19 Jarace Walker IND 5.2 2.1 1.3
20 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.0 1.8 0.8
21 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.8 1.0
22 Terquavion Smith PHI 3.4 1.0 0.6
23 KJ Martin PHI 2.5 1.2 0.5
24 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.4 1.1 0.5
25 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.3 0.3
26 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.2 1.0 0.6
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.9 0.9 0.3
28 Jaden Springer PHI 1.8 1.0 0.5
29 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.