NBA games

ATL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
112–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL31372420112
GS38313233134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home GS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 33 23 7 7
Jalen Johnson S 36 21 9 6
Saddiq Bey S 27 18 7 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 33 17 0 3
Patty Mills 22 13 2 3
Clint Capela S 25 11 11 1
Onyeka Okongwu 25 6 7 1
Garrison Mathews 20 3 0 1
Trent Forrest 15 0 0 5
AJ Griffin 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 29 25 9 2
Stephen Curry S 31 25 3 8
Klay Thompson S 30 24 2 3
Andrew Wiggins S 29 12 5 1
Draymond Green 23 12 5 3
Dario Saric S 16 10 3 3
Brandin Podziemski 27 10 3 2
Cory Joseph 21 8 2 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 15 4 6 1
Lester Quinones 3 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
15%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Clint Capela ATL
10%
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
9%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
7 Kevon Looney GS
8%
8 Klay Thompson GS
8%
9 Andrew Wiggins GS
7%
10 Dario Saric GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
16%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.0 6.2 4.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.4 3.5 6.4
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.3 5.6 2.8
4 Klay Thompson GS 17.8 3.0 3.3
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.1 8.4 3.8
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 14.0 3.1 2.6
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 11.7 5.3 1.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.5 4.9 3.5
9 Draymond Green GS 10.4 5.3 5.0
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.4 6.4 1.3
11 Andrew Wiggins GS 9.9 3.2 1.9
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.5 7.1 1.5
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.1 9.5 0.8
14 Dario Saric GS 8.8 4.9 3.2
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.3 1.6 1.1
16 Kevon Looney GS 5.3 4.4 1.1
17 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.8 1.6
18 Patty Mills ATL 3.7 1.4 0.8
19 Lester Quinones GS 3.2 1.2 0.8
20 Gui Santos GS 2.6 1.4 0.4
21 AJ Griffin ATL 2.3 1.0 0.3
22 Jerome Robinson GS 2.3 1.0 0.5
23 Seth Lundy ATL 2.0 0.9 0.3
24 Cory Joseph GS 1.9 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.