NBA games

PHX @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
132–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX25324332132
DAL34242031109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DAL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 46 7 3
Bradley Beal S 36 20 7 7
Grayson Allen S 34 15 5 4
Kevin Durant S 38 12 10 7
Keita Bates-Diop 15 11 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 21 8 5 3
Josh Okogie 24 6 4 3
Jordan Goodwin 4 6 0 1
Drew Eubanks 9 2 0 0
Yuta Watanabe 7 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 34 8 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. 34 17 5 2
Jaden Hardy 15 11 3 2
Grant Williams S 11 8 1 1
Dereck Lively II S 25 8 2 1
Josh Green S 31 8 4 3
Dante Exum 19 6 2 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 6 2 1
Richaun Holmes 5 4 2 0
A.J. Lawson 5 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grant Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Grant Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Dante Exum DAL
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 Josh Green DAL
8%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
24%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 34.2 8.5 10.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.9 3.8 6.8
3 Kevin Durant PHX 26.6 6.1 5.3
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.8 4.9 4.9
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 18.0 3.5 2.1
6 Grayson Allen PHX 14.9 3.9 3.3
7 Dante Exum DAL 13.1 3.1 3.7
8 Josh Green DAL 10.9 3.7 2.1
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.8 4.0 1.4
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.3 9.3 3.2
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.7 7.2 1.6
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.2 2.5 1.8
13 Grant Williams DAL 6.4 2.8 1.9
14 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.4 3.2 1.5
15 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.1 2.7 0.8
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.3 3.5 0.6
17 Josh Okogie PHX 4.3 2.0 1.1
18 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.1 1.5 0.7
19 Seth Curry DAL 3.9 1.2 0.7
20 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.8 1.8 1.0
21 Nassir Little PHX 3.8 2.1 0.5
22 Brandon Williams DAL 3.4 0.8 0.7
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.0 2.1 0.8
24 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.5 2.6 0.5
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.3 1.3 0.6
26 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.1 1.7 0.7
27 Yuta Watanabe PHX 1.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.